By G. Terry Madonna & Michael L.Young “You don’t beat somebody with nobody.” That familiar old maxim expresses a very modern political truth. Well-known candidates tend to win elections running against unknown candidates. The well-known candidate may be unpopular, may be flawed or even worse. But having high name identification among voters becomes a huge advantage that often predicts winning or losing. The importance of name identification is something state Democrats ought to remember even as they salivate publicly at the prospects of taking on embattled gubernatorial incumbent Tom Corbett …

By G. Terry Madonna & Michael L.Young In 2012, Pennsylvania had quite a year, not a year everyone will want to remember, but certainly a year few will be able to forget. Consider some of the highlights of a year filled with dramatic, often disturbing and frequently surprising moments. Read More: Bad Gamble: Pa. Lottery Privatization Early in the year, a beloved football icon dies in the midst of a messy investigation involving embarrassing questions about how his program may have abetted the decade’s long career of a notorious pedophile. Later in the year, that pedophile’s public trial and …

By G. Terry Madonna & Michael L.Young Pennsylvanians might reasonably expect that the political world would take a breather from campaigns following almost two years of non-stop presidential campaigning. After running nationally more than one million commercials and spending an estimated six billion dollars, everyone should be ready for a rest. Silly you! In fact, the next political campaign is already underway—it started the day after the presidential election. We speak, of course, of the already frenzied maneuvering for position in the Keystone state’s upcoming 2014 gubernatorial election. …

By G. Terry Madonna and Michael L. Young It’s Déjà vu. And yes the immortal Yogi Berra would say “all over again.” But this time, there’s not much funny about it. The hard fought, tensely tight 2012 presidential election looks more and more like a contest that could end with one candidate winning the popular vote while the other wins the electoral vote. Our deeply divided and sharply polarized nation might witness the second Electoral College misfire in the last four presidential elections–misfire defined here as awarding the presidency to the candidate who lost the popular vote. That …

By G. Terry Madonna and Michael L. Young Here it comes. Beginning on October 3 and continuing through October 22, the rapidly closing 2012 presidential campaign will host of series of fall debates. The first is likely to be the most heavily watched event of the long presidential campaign. The second and third will follow on October 16, and October 22, respectively. The vice presidential debate occurs on October 11. Not surprisingly, both campaigns approach the debates at fever pitch. In a highly polarized, emotionally charged, hard fought race, the Obama camp believes that a solid mistake-…

By G. Terry Madonna & Michael L. Young Mitt Romney is not a great candidate! This, of course, is no news bulletin. In fact, Romney’s ineptness is a topic that now dominates the political dialogue during the waning days of the 2012 presidential campaign. He has consistently underwhelmed most observers with his political skills. The national media now recount his many gaffes, miscues, mistakes and missed opportunities almost daily. Indeed, Republican loyalists and establishment conservatives have leveled as harsh or harsher criticism toward him than his opponents on the left. At times, it has …

By G. Terry Madonna & Michael L.Young In this most contentious election year, one proposition looms not at all contentious: few disagree that America faces a host of imposing challenges--both foreign and domestic. But while we clearly recognize the formidable nature of those challenges we utterly fail to understand that it is our flawed presidential electoral system that prevents us from solving them. Rather than serve as a solution, our electoral system has become part of the problem. It has become America’s great game of Electoral College roulette. Roulette is a fitting metaphor for the …

By G. Terry Madonna and Michael L. Young Let’s say it clearly. The Democrats had a good convention, one clearly reflected in a respectable post-convention bounce – the Republicans, not so much. Not that the GOP had a really bad or a dreadful convention. In truth, it had its moments. As conventions go, however, mediocre would describe it best. It wasn’t the worst and certainly wasn’t the best. But the really interesting question is whether it matters that one party had a solid convention while the other party’s convention was merely so-so. Will it alter the outcome of the presidential race? …

By G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young The endless campaign, also known as the 2012 American presidential election, isn’t quite ending yet. But as Churchill might have put it, we have at least reached the beginning of the end. With less than 90 days until Election Day, the party conventions are almost upon us and the fall debates not far behind. The respective party conventions will take place in late August and early September. Traditionally, the presidential debates are held in October. But will either the conventions or the debates matter in this persistently tight race? So far the …

By G. Terry Madonna & Michael L. Young   Ironies abound in politics. Some are amusing; others are just bizarre. But few top the one now brewing in the Keystone State. Paradoxically enough, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett  seeking to banish Barack Obama from the White House, may instead be sowing the seeds for his own re-election defeat two years later. In short, if Romney wins in 2012, Corbett could lose in 2014. Understanding this peculiar electoral enigma requires familiarity with Pennsylvania’s famous (or infamous) “eight-year cycle.” This is the sixty-year pattern in gubernatorial …

By G. Terry Madonna & Michael L. Young It’s known as Ockham’s razor. Attributed to 14th-century philosopher William of Ockham, it advocates seeking the simplest explanation necessary to make sense of things. The popular acronym KISS captures its spirit—“keep it simple stupid.” Alas, Ockham’s adage finds few takers today among contemporary electoral analysts. Amid the pundit literati predicting presidential elections, the slogan might be, “seek complexity, lots of it.” This criticism applies particularly to the various and sundry “models” used by the “punditocracy” to predict who will win the …